Bari 3-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 33 as Bari welcome Modena to Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bari's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio San Nicola this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Modena — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Modena's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bari's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bari, 3 for Modena and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 55% versus Modena 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 42% | Modena 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.89 xG and Modena 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.841 / defence 1.238 | Modena attack 1.009 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Modena's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Bari games / 69 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 23% | Draw 31% | Modena 46%. Fair-value odds: Bari 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 2.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 60% | Modena 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 23% | Draw 31% | Modena 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Bari 0.89 / Modena 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.841 / def 1.238 | Modena attack 1.009 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Modena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Modena xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Modena kick off?
Bari vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Modena?
Bari 3 - 1 Modena.
Where is Bari vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Modena part of?
Bari vs Modena is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 23% chance of winning, Modena a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bari and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Modena?
Record (7 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 3 | Modena 3W.
What form are Bari and Modena in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Modena (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.84) and Modena's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
23%
4.42
31%
3.23
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Bari xG
Total xG
2.27
1.37
Modena xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
6%
17.47
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.3 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bari and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Bari and 1.37 for Modena, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 17W 28D 24L from 69 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 24W 23D 22L across 69 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.14 PPG, Modena on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 12W 13D 8L from 33 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 10W 11D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.30 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Modena in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 28D 24L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Modena have gone 24W 23D 22L in their last 69 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Modena away?
Bari's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.48 PPG; Modena away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Bari or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Modena in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Bari won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Modena specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bari 3-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 61%, Modena 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bari) and 39% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Modena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Bari's recent matches and 48% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bari's recent games and 39% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Modena tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Modena in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Modena 3-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.89 xG and Modena 1.37 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Modena attack 1.01 / defence 0.77, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 23% | Draw 31% | Modena 46%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 42%, Modena 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.14 PPG, Modena 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.