Avellino vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Avellino at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Avellino vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi to face Avellino in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Avellino's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Avellino at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Benevento (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Serie B outings this term — 0.33 points per game. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Avellino's 1.60 PPG return is 1.27 points per game ahead of Benevento's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Avellino — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Benevento — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 33% versus Benevento 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 67% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.56 xG and Benevento 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.016 / defence 0.974 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Avellino games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 56% | Draw 25% | Benevento 19%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Benevento 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Avellino (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Avellino 40% | Benevento 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 56% | Draw 25% | Benevento 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Avellino 1.56 / Benevento 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.016 / def 0.974 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Avellino (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Benevento xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Benevento kick off?
Avellino vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Where is Avellino vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Benevento part of?
Avellino vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 56% chance of winning, Benevento a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Avellino and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avellino and Benevento in?
Avellino (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Avellino's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.70x) against Avellino's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.94
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.35
0.79
Benevento xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
4%
25.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Avellino and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Avellino and 0.79 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Benevento?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Avellino have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Avellino are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Avellino are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento in 67%.
Defensively: Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Benevento in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Avellino or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Benevento in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 33%, Benevento 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Avellino) and 33% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Avellino keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Avellino's recent matches and 67% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avellino vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Avellino's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avellino and Benevento tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.