Ascoli vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 2.33 PPG across 3 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 0L. Last five: W D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Mantova have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.33 for Ascoli, 1.90 for Mantova — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ascoli 67% and Mantova 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 33% | Mantova 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.10 xG and Mantova 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.796 / defence 0.983 | Mantova attack 1.064 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Ascoli's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Ascoli games / 41 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 33% | Draw 28% | Mantova 39%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Mantova 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 67% | Mantova 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 33% | Draw 28% | Mantova 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Ascoli 1.10 / Mantova 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.796 / def 0.983 | Mantova attack 1.064 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Mantova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mantova xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Mantova kick off?
Ascoli vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Mantova part of?
Ascoli vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 33% chance of winning, Mantova a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ascoli and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Mantova in?
Ascoli (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-W. Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.80) and Mantova's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (1.06x) against Ascoli's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
33%
3.01
28%
3.54
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.31
1.21
Mantova xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.21 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ascoli's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.33 PPG for Ascoli against 2.33 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Mantova's attacking output running into Ascoli's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Mantova in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Mantova in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Mantova have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Ascoli or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mantova in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ascoli, 100% for Mantova — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ascoli) and 67% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ascoli's games and 100% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 67% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Mantova tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Mantova in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.