Arezzo vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arezzo and Sudtirol meet at Citta di Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Arezzo (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Arezzo half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 67% versus Sudtirol 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arezzo 100% | Sudtirol 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.41 xG and Sudtirol 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.981 / defence 1.367 | Sudtirol attack 0.937 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Arezzo games / 41 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 36% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 39%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Sudtirol 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arezzo 67% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 36% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Arezzo 1.41 / Sudtirol 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.981 / def 1.367 | Sudtirol attack 0.937 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sudtirol xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Arezzo vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Sudtirol part of?
Arezzo vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 36% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Arezzo and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Sudtirol in?
Arezzo (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arezzo's attack rating (0.98) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.94x) against Arezzo's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
36%
2.78
25%
4.03
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Arezzo xG
Total xG
2.89
1.48
Sudtirol xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.48 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arezzo come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Arezzo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arezzo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arezzo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Arezzo or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arezzo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 67%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arezzo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sudtirol tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 67%, Sudtirol 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Arezzo) and 0% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 67%; Arezzo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Arezzo's recent matches and 33% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arezzo vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Arezzo's recent games and 0% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arezzo and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.