Arezzo vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Pisa travel to Citta di Arezzo to take on Arezzo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Arezzo have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Arezzo) versus 0.60 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Arezzo in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 67% versus Pisa 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arezzo 100% | Pisa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.28 xG and Pisa 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.981 / defence 1.367 | Pisa attack 1.135 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Arezzo games / 3 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 27% | Draw 23% | Pisa 50%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Pisa 2.00. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arezzo 67% | Pisa 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 27% | Draw 23% | Pisa 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Arezzo 1.28 / Pisa 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.981 / def 1.367 | Pisa attack 1.135 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Pisa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Pisa xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Pisa kick off?
Arezzo vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Pisa part of?
Arezzo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 27% chance of winning, Pisa a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Arezzo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Pisa in?
Arezzo (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arezzo's attack rating (0.98) and Pisa's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Arezzo's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
27%
3.67
23%
4.33
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Arezzo xG
Total xG
3.07
1.80
Pisa xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
5%
22.13
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.80 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Arezzo have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arezzo.
The Goals Picture
Arezzo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arezzo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Arezzo or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arezzo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arezzo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 67%, Pisa 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Arezzo and 67% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 33%; Arezzo have failed to score in 33% of games; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Arezzo's recent matches and 33% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arezzo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Arezzo's matches and 67% of Pisa's.
Do Arezzo and Pisa tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.