Udinese 3-3 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Udinese at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Hellas Verona encounter.

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Full Analysis

Bluenergy Stadium plays host to Udinese versus Hellas Verona in Serie A (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Udinese (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Udinese have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Hellas Verona have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Udinese. A 0.60 PPG lead over Hellas Verona (0.90 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jan 2023, ended Udinese 1–1 Hellas Verona — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Udinese — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Hellas Verona 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Hellas Verona 41%). Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Udinese recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.02 xG and Hellas Verona 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.811 / defence 1.068 | Hellas Verona attack 0.661 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.168. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Udinese's last 51 games and Hellas Verona's last 51.

Result probabilities: Udinese 39% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 28%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.58 | Draw 3.02 | Hellas Verona 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Udinese's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games).

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