Genoa 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Empoli have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Genoa, 0 for Empoli and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 39% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 41% | Empoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.49 xG and Empoli 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.961 / defence 1.032 | Empoli attack 0.844 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.175. Data: 13 Genoa games / 51 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 48% | Draw 26% | Empoli 26%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Empoli 3.85. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 48% | Draw 26% | Empoli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Genoa 1.49 / Empoli 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.961 / def 1.032 | Empoli attack 0.844 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Genoa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Empoli xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Empoli kick off?
Genoa vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Empoli?
Genoa 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Genoa vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Empoli part of?
Genoa vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 48% chance of winning, Empoli a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 2 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Genoa and Empoli in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.96x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.84x) against Genoa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.83
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.52
1.02
Empoli xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Genoa and 1.02 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 13D 13L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.04 PPG from 51 outings (13W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 15W 7D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (4W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.88 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Empoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 14D 24L in their last 51 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Empoli away?
Genoa's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.08 PPG; Empoli away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Genoa or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Genoa
5
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Genoa 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Empoli?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 32%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Genoa and 36% for Empoli.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Empoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Genoa's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Genoa's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Empoli tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Empoli in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 14, as Genoa and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.49 xG and Empoli 1.02 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Empoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 48% | Draw 26% | Empoli 26%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Empoli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.