Genoa 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Genoa (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Genoa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Empoli have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Empoli away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2022, ended Genoa 0–0 Empoli — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 39% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 41% | Empoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.49 xG and Empoli 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.961 / defence 1.032 | Empoli attack 0.844 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.175. Data: built from Genoa's last 13 games and Empoli's last 51.
Result probabilities: Genoa 48% | Draw 26% | Empoli 26%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.08 | Draw 3.83 | Empoli 3.87. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 48% | Draw 26% | Empoli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Genoa 1.49 / Empoli 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.961 / def 1.032 | Empoli attack 0.844 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Genoa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Empoli xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Empoli kick off?
Genoa vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Empoli?
Genoa 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Genoa vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Empoli part of?
Genoa vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 48% chance of winning, Empoli a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and Empoli will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Genoa vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.96x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.84x) against Genoa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 13 games and Empoli's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.83
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.52
1.02
Empoli xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Genoa and 1.02 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 13D 13L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.04 PPG from 51 outings (13W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 15W 7D 3L across their last 25 home games, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.84 points per game from their last 25 away games (4W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.88 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Empoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 14D 24L in their last 51 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Empoli away?
Genoa's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.08 PPG; Empoli away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Genoa or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Genoa
5
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Empoli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Genoa 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Empoli?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 32%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Genoa and 36% for Empoli.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Empoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Genoa's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Genoa's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Genoa's recent matches and 68% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 14, as Genoa and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.49 xG and Empoli 1.02 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Empoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 48% | Draw 26% | Empoli 26%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Empoli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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