Udinese 2-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fiorentina at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Fiorentina encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Bluenergy Stadium plays host to Udinese versus Fiorentina in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Udinese have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Udinese have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Udinese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Fiorentina (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Fiorentina have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Udinese, 3 for Fiorentina and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2024, ended Udinese 2–1 Fiorentina — a Udinese win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 43% | Fiorentina 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Fiorentina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.794 / defence 1.172 | Fiorentina attack 1.044 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.143. Udinese's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Udinese's last 75 games and Fiorentina's last 75.

Result probabilities: Udinese 27% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.72 | Draw 3.52 | Fiorentina 2.24. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Udinese 40% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights