Torino 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Torino take on AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Torino at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Torino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to AS Roma, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2024, ended Torino 0–1 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 40% versus AS Roma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 29% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.89 xG and AS Roma 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.851 / defence 0.879 | AS Roma attack 0.923 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.143. Data: built from Torino's last 75 games and AS Roma's last 75.
Result probabilities: Torino 32% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 34%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.13 | Draw 2.92 | AS Roma 2.96. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Torino's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Torino 50% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 32% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Torino 0.89 / AS Roma 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.851 / def 0.879 | AS Roma attack 0.923 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.93
AS Roma xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Torino vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Torino vs AS Roma kick off?
Torino vs AS Roma kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Torino vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs AS Roma part of?
Torino vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 32% chance of winning, AS Roma a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Torino and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Torino vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torino's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Torino's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Torino's last 75 games and AS Roma's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
34%
2.92
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Torino xG
Total xG
1.82
0.93
AS Roma xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Torino vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Torino and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Torino and 0.93 for AS Roma, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Torino have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 23W 28D 24L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 37W 18D 20L from 75 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 37 home games (14W 16D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 12D 13L from their last 37 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.59 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
Torino (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Torino
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Torino vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Torino and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 23W 28D 24L in their last 75 games (1.29 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 37W 18D 20L in their last 75 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or AS Roma away?
Torino's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.57 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Torino or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AS Roma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Torino and AS Roma, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won Torino 0-3 AS Roma on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 1D 5L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Torino
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Torino vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Torino have won 1, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Torino and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 32%, AS Roma 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Torino) and 49% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Torino vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Torino and AS Roma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Torino's recent matches and 60% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Torino and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Torino's recent games and 49% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 0-2 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.89 xG and AS Roma 0.93 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Torino fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AS Roma outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 32% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 34%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 29%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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