Torino 0-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Torino face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Torino welcome Napoli to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Torino have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Napoli stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Napoli's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Torino's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Napoli have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Torino's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Napoli have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Torino in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 32% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Napoli in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 37% versus Napoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 35% | Napoli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.84 xG and Napoli 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.873 / defence 0.852 | Napoli attack 1.071 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.298. Napoli's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Torino games / 51 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 26% | Draw 31% | Napoli 44%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Napoli 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Torino 40% | Napoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 26% | Draw 31% | Napoli 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Torino 0.84 / Napoli 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.873 / def 0.852 | Napoli attack 1.071 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Napoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Napoli xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Napoli kick off?
Torino vs Napoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Napoli?
Torino 0 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Torino vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Napoli part of?
Torino vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 26% chance of winning, Napoli a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Torino and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Napoli?
Record (6 meetings): Torino 1W | Draws 1 | Napoli 4W.
What form are Torino and Napoli in?
Torino (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Napoli (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Torino vs Napoli?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.87x the league average against Napoli's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
26%
3.91
31%
3.25
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Torino xG
Total xG
2.02
1.18
Napoli xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 15.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Torino and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Torino and 1.18 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torino come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 17D 17L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.61 PPG from 51 outings (22W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.33 PPG, Napoli on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Torino's home form reads 10W 11D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (10W 9D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.47 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Napoli in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 17W 17D 17L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while Napoli have gone 22W 16D 13L in their last 51 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Napoli away?
Torino's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.64 PPG; Napoli away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Torino or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Napoli in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Napoli runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2023, when Napoli won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Torino's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
1
Draws
7
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Napoli have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Napoli 2-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino see a goal before the break in 32% of their matches.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 28%, Napoli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Torino) and 44% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Napoli in 32%; Torino have failed to score in 44% of games; Napoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Torino's recent matches and 44% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Torino's recent games and 44% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Napoli tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 32% of their recent matches, Napoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Torino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Torino 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.84 xG and Napoli 1.18 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Torino fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.87 / defence 0.85 against Napoli attack 1.07 / defence 0.71, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 26% | Draw 31% | Napoli 44%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 35%, Napoli 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.33 PPG, Napoli 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.