Torino 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Torino take on AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
AS Roma hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 40% versus AS Roma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 29% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.89 xG and AS Roma 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.851 / defence 0.879 | AS Roma attack 0.923 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.143. Data: 75 Torino games / 75 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 32% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 34%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | AS Roma 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Torino 50% | AS Roma 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 32% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Torino 0.89 / AS Roma 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.851 / def 0.879 | AS Roma attack 0.923 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.93
AS Roma xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs AS Roma kick off?
Torino vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Torino vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs AS Roma part of?
Torino vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 32% chance of winning, AS Roma a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Torino and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
Record (7 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 5W.
What form are Torino and AS Roma in?
Torino (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torino's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Torino's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
34%
2.92
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Torino xG
Total xG
1.82
0.93
AS Roma xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Torino and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Torino and 0.93 for AS Roma, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Torino have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 23W 28D 24L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 37W 18D 20L from 75 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.57 PPG from 37 outings (14W 16D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 12D 13L from 37 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.59 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 23W 28D 24L in their last 75 games (1.29 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 37W 18D 20L in their last 75 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or AS Roma away?
Torino's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.57 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Torino or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AS Roma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Torino
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 1, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Torino and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 32%, AS Roma 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Torino) and 49% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Torino's recent matches and 60% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Torino's recent games and 49% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 0-2 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.89 xG and AS Roma 0.93 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Torino fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AS Roma outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 32% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 34%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 29%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.