Napoli 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Napoli face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Napoli welcome Monza to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 29 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Napoli — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Napoli at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Monza stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Monza have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Napoli) versus 1.20 (Monza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Napoli have won 1, Monza 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Napoli 0–2 Monza — a Monza win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Napoli trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Monza trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 46% versus Monza 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 54% | Monza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.41 xG and Monza 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.995 / defence 1.210 | Monza attack 0.892 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.103. Napoli's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monza's projected output up. Data: built from Napoli's last 55 games and Monza's last 55.
Result probabilities: Napoli 41% | Draw 28% | Monza 31%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.42 | Draw 3.62 | Monza 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Napoli's last 10 home games and Monza's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Napoli 60% (last 10 home games) | Monza 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Friday 29 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 41% | Draw 28% | Monza 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Napoli 1.41 / Monza 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.995 / def 1.210 | Monza attack 0.892 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Napoli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Monza xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Napoli vs Monza FAQs
What time does Napoli vs Monza kick off?
Napoli vs Monza kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 29 December 2023 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Monza?
Napoli 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Napoli vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Monza part of?
Napoli vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 18) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 41% chance of winning, Monza a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Napoli and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Napoli vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Napoli's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Napoli's last 55 games and Monza's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.62
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.60
1.19
Monza xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Napoli vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Napoli and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Napoli and 1.19 for Monza, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 36W 9D 10L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 19W 16D 20L from 55 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.04 PPG from their last 27 home games (17W 4D 6L).
On the road, Monza have gone 9W 7D 11L from their last 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.16 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Monza
Blended
Napoli (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Napoli
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Napoli vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Napoli and Monza in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 36W 9D 10L in their last 55 games (2.13 PPG), while Monza have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Monza away?
Napoli's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.04 PPG; Monza away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Napoli or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Monza in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 28 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Napoli have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Aug 2022, when Napoli won Napoli 4-0 Monza.
Napoli's record when hosting Monza specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Napoli
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Napoli vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Monza?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Napoli have won 5, Monza have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Napoli and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2026: Monza 1-4 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Monza?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 48%, Monza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Napoli) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Monza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Napoli vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Napoli and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Napoli's recent matches and 44% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Napoli and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Napoli's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Napoli's recent matches and 74% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Napoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 18, as Napoli and Monza drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.41 xG and Monza 1.19 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Napoli fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Monza landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Monza attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 41% | Draw 28% | Monza 31%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 54%, Monza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monza's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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