Hellas Verona 0-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hellas Verona face Salernitana.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi plays host to Hellas Verona versus Salernitana in Serie A (matchday 18). Kick-off: Saturday 30 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Salernitana have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Hellas Verona against 0.60 for Salernitana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Salernitana edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2023, ended Hellas Verona 1–0 Salernitana — a Hellas Verona win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 53% versus Salernitana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 40% | Salernitana 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.83 xG and Salernitana 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.936 / defence 1.209 | Salernitana attack 0.805 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.051. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.406 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hellas Verona's projected output up. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Salernitana's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 55 games and Salernitana's last 55.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 55% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 20%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.81 | Draw 4.02 | Salernitana 5.03. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 home games) | Salernitana 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 55% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.83 / Salernitana 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.936 / def 1.209 | Salernitana attack 0.805 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Salernitana xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Salernitana FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Salernitana kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 30 December 2023 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Hellas Verona 0 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Salernitana part of?
Hellas Verona vs Salernitana is a Serie A fixture (matchday 18) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 55% chance of winning, Salernitana a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hellas Verona and Salernitana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hellas Verona vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.94) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.81x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 55 games and Salernitana's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.02
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.85
1.02
Salernitana xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
3%
31.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Salernitana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.02 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 11W 15D 29L from 55 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 10W 21D 24L across 55 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Hellas Verona against 0.93 for Salernitana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 8W 6D 12L from their last 26 home games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 2W 10D 14L across their last 26 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.13 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Salernitana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Hellas Verona vs Salernitana Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 11W 15D 29L in their last 55 games (0.87 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 10W 21D 24L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Salernitana away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.15 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 20 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
3
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Salernitana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Salernitana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 2, Salernitana have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Salernitana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 May 2024: Salernitana 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 86% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 58%, Salernitana 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 54% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 27% of games; Salernitana in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Salernitana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Salernitana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hellas Verona's games and 58% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hellas Verona and Salernitana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 54% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Salernitana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 88% of Salernitana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.83 xG and Salernitana 1.02 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against Salernitana attack 0.81 / defence 1.41, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 55% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 20%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 40%, Salernitana 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salernitana's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.87 PPG, Salernitana 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salernitana win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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