Monza 1-3 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and Empoli meet at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Monza have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Empoli away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Monza, 0.70 for Empoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Monza 2W, Empoli 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Monza — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Empoli — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 49% versus Empoli 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 45% | Empoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.11 xG and Empoli 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.689 / defence 1.308 | Empoli attack 0.872 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. Monza's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Monza games / 74 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 31% | Draw 29% | Empoli 40%. Fair-value odds: Monza 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Monza 50% | Empoli 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 31% | Draw 29% | Empoli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Monza 1.11 / Empoli 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.689 / def 1.308 | Empoli attack 0.872 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Empoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Empoli xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Empoli kick off?
Monza vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Empoli?
Monza 1 - 3 Empoli.
Where is Monza vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Empoli part of?
Monza vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 31% chance of winning, Empoli a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monza and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Monza 2W | Draws 1 | Empoli 2W.
What form are Monza and Empoli in?
Monza (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Empoli (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.69x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.87x) against Monza's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
31%
3.24
29%
3.47
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Monza xG
Total xG
2.42
1.31
Empoli xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Monza and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Monza and 1.31 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza come into this having played 74 games, going 14W 21D 39L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.86 PPG from 74 outings (14W 22D 38L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Monza against 0.86 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Monza's home form reads 7W 11D 19L across 37 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.84 points per game from 37 outings (7W 10D 20L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.78 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Empoli in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 14W 21D 39L in their last 74 games (0.85 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 22D 38L in their last 74 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Empoli away?
Monza's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 0.86 PPG; Empoli away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Empoli won 3-0 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Monza
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Monza 2-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Empoli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Monza) and 43% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Monza have failed to score in 32% of games; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Monza's recent matches and 54% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Monza's recent games and 43% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Empoli tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Empoli in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Monza 1-3 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.11 xG and Empoli 1.31 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.69 / defence 1.31 against Empoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.34, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 31% | Draw 29% | Empoli 40%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 45%, Empoli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 0.85 PPG, Empoli 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.