Genoa 1-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter make the trip to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season.
Inter have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Inter arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Inter have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Genoa's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Inter winning.
It is worth noting that Inter have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Inter — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Inter 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 46% | Inter 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.97 xG and Inter 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.811 / defence 1.200 | Inter attack 1.317 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.111. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Genoa games / 52 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 21% | Draw 23% | Inter 56%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Inter 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 40% | Inter 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 21% | Draw 23% | Inter 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Genoa 0.97 / Inter 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.811 / def 1.200 | Inter attack 1.317 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Inter (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Inter xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Inter kick off?
Genoa vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Inter?
Genoa 1 - 2 Inter.
Where is Genoa vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Inter part of?
Genoa vs Inter is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 21% chance of winning, Inter a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genoa and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
Record (6 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 3 | Inter 3W.
What form are Genoa and Inter in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.81x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.32x) against Genoa's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
21%
4.81
23%
4.26
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.73
1.75
Inter xG
4.81
21%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
27.82
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Genoa and 1.75 for Inter, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 13W 18D 21L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 34W 9D 9L from 52 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L).
On the road, Inter have gone 15W 5D 5L from 25 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.13 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Inter in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 13W 18D 21L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Inter have gone 34W 9D 9L in their last 52 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.08 PPG; Inter away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Genoa or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Inter in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Inter have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Inter have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Inter 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Genoa) and 48% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 52%; Genoa have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 36% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Genoa's recent games and 48% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Inter tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Inter in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Genoa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.97 xG and Inter 1.75 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Inter attack 1.32 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 21% | Draw 23% | Inter 56%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, Inter 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.