Empoli 0-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lazio make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to face Empoli in Serie A (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Friday 22 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Empoli (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Empoli have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lazio have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lazio away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Empoli against 1.40 for Lazio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Lazio edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Empoli 0–2 Lazio — a Lazio win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 43% versus Lazio 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 35% | Lazio 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.08 xG and Lazio 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.780 / defence 1.224 | Lazio attack 0.917 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.115. Empoli's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Empoli's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lazio's projected output up. Data: built from Empoli's last 54 games and Lazio's last 54.
Result probabilities: Empoli 31% | Draw 30% | Lazio 39%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.25 | Draw 3.33 | Lazio 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 30% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 31% | Draw 30% | Lazio 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Empoli 1.08 / Lazio 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.780 / def 1.224 | Lazio attack 0.917 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Lazio (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lazio xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Lazio kick off?
Empoli vs Lazio kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 22 December 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Lazio?
Empoli 0 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Empoli vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Lazio part of?
Empoli vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 17) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 31% chance of winning, Lazio a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Empoli and Lazio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Empoli vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.78) and Lazio's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (0.92x) against Empoli's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 54 games and Lazio's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.33
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.33
1.25
Lazio xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Empoli and 1.25 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli's recent record stands at 13W 16D 25L from 54 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 15L across 54 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 9W 6D 12L from their last 27 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 13W 5D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.41 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Lazio
Blended
Empoli (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Empoli vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Lazio in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 16D 25L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Lazio have gone 28W 11D 15L in their last 54 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.22 PPG; Lazio away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Empoli or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lazio in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Lazio have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 0D 4L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Empoli
2
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lazio?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 0, Lazio have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2025: Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 37%, Lazio 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Empoli) and 37% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 52%; Empoli have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Lazio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Empoli's recent matches and 33% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Empoli's recent games and 37% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Empoli's recent matches and 70% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Empoli 0-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.08 xG and Lazio 1.25 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.78 / defence 1.22 against Lazio attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 31% | Draw 30% | Lazio 39%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 35%, Lazio 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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