Bologna 1-0 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atalanta — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bologna are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bologna have won 1, Atalanta 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Atalanta 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Atalanta 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.70 xG and Atalanta 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.077 / defence 0.665 | Atalanta attack 1.074 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.136. Bologna's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Bologna games / 54 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 17%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Atalanta 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Atalanta 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Bologna 1.70 / Atalanta 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.077 / def 0.665 | Atalanta attack 1.074 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Bologna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Atalanta xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Atalanta kick off?
Bologna vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Bologna 1 - 0 Atalanta.
Where is Bologna vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Atalanta part of?
Bologna vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 58% chance of winning, Atalanta a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bologna and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 2W.
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.08x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.00
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.51
0.81
Atalanta xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
3%
31.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bologna and 0.81 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 19D 14L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.67 PPG from 54 outings (27W 9D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.52 PPG, Atalanta on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 13W 10D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.52 points per game from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.74 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 21W 19D 14L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 27W 9D 18L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Atalanta away?
Bologna's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.81 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Atalanta have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 44%, Atalanta 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bologna) and 48% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Atalanta in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bologna's recent matches and 48% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 48% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Atalanta tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Atalanta 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Atalanta 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.70 xG and Atalanta 0.81 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.08 / defence 0.67 against Atalanta attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 17%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Atalanta 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Atalanta's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.52 PPG, Atalanta 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.