Cagliari 4-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Frosinone meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Cagliari have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cagliari are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Frosinone away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Frosinone are 0.90 PPG clear of Cagliari over their recent games (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Cagliari 0–0 Frosinone — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 53% versus Frosinone 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 45% | Frosinone 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Frosinone have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.96 xG and Frosinone 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.663 / defence 1.449 | Frosinone attack 0.688 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.142. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Frosinone's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.449 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Frosinone's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 9 games and Frosinone's last 9.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 30% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 39%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.34 | Draw 3.21 | Frosinone 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cagliari 70% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, matchday 10 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 30% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Cagliari 0.96 / Frosinone 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.663 / def 1.449 | Frosinone attack 0.688 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Frosinone xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Frosinone FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Frosinone kick off?
Cagliari vs Frosinone kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Cagliari 4 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Cagliari vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Frosinone part of?
Cagliari vs Frosinone is a Serie A fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 30% chance of winning, Frosinone a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cagliari and Frosinone will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Cagliari vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.69x) against Cagliari's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 9 games and Frosinone's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
30%
3.34
31%
3.21
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.10
1.14
Frosinone xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.9 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Frosinone Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.14 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 15W 19D 13L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Frosinone's form line: 27W 11D 9L from 47 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 23 home games (11W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Frosinone have gone 10W 7D 6L from their last 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.60 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
Cagliari (Home) vs Frosinone (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Cagliari vs Frosinone Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 19D 13L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 27W 11D 9L in their last 47 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Frosinone away?
Cagliari's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.78 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Frosinone in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Cagliari
2
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Frosinone H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Frosinone?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 2, Frosinone have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Frosinone last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Cagliari 1-0 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Frosinone?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 70%, Frosinone 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cagliari) and 39% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 35%; Frosinone in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Frosinone Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Frosinone matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cagliari's games and 52% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Frosinone matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cagliari's recent games and 39% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Frosinone matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Cagliari's recent matches and 74% of Frosinone's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Frosinone 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Frosinone 4-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.96 xG and Frosinone 1.14 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Frosinone outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.66 / defence 1.45 against Frosinone attack 0.69 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 30% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 39%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 45%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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