AS Roma 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, AS Roma stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, AS Roma have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Fiorentina — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for AS Roma, 3 for Fiorentina and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended AS Roma 1–5 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 56% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 50% | Fiorentina 56%). Note also that Fiorentina surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while AS Roma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.62 xG and Fiorentina 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.318 / defence 0.790 | Fiorentina attack 1.137 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.122. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.318 — their 1.62 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma have a tight defence (rating 0.790), which is pulling Fiorentina's projected output down. Data: built from AS Roma's last 72 games and Fiorentina's last 72.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.95 | Draw 3.92 | Fiorentina 4.31. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 50% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG AS Roma 1.62 / Fiorentina 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.318 / def 0.790 | Fiorentina attack 1.137 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Fiorentina xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Fiorentina kick off?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is AS Roma vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Fiorentina part of?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 51% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AS Roma and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.32x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 72 games and Fiorentina's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.92
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.63
1.01
Fiorentina xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
21.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.01 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 35W 18D 19L from 72 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 34W 17D 21L across 72 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.71 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 23W 5D 7L from their last 35 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 13W 8D 14L across their last 35 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.58 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 35W 18D 19L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 34W 17D 21L in their last 72 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Fiorentina away?
AS Roma's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.11 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.34 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
AS Roma have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won Fiorentina 5-1 AS Roma.
AS Roma's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 5, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 51%, Fiorentina 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (AS Roma) and 46% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fiorentina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of AS Roma's recent matches and 51% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of AS Roma's recent games and 46% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AS Roma's recent matches and 80% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.62 xG and Fiorentina 1.01 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.32 / defence 0.79 against Fiorentina attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 51% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fiorentina's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.71 PPG, Fiorentina 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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