Cagliari 1-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Udinese meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Udinese have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Udinese, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Udinese winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Udinese have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 58% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 53% | Udinese 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.43 xG and Udinese 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.058 / defence 1.141 | Udinese attack 0.817 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.122. Data: 72 Cagliari games / 72 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 45% | Draw 29% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Udinese 3.70. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 45% | Draw 29% | Udinese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Cagliari 1.43 / Udinese 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.058 / def 1.141 | Udinese attack 0.817 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Udinese xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Udinese kick off?
Cagliari vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Udinese?
Cagliari 1 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Cagliari vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Udinese part of?
Cagliari vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 45% chance of winning, Udinese a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cagliari and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Udinese?
Record (5 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Udinese 3W.
What form are Cagliari and Udinese in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.06x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.82x) against Cagliari's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.50
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.47
1.05
Udinese xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
6%
15.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.05 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 72 games, going 16W 21D 35L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.08 PPG from 72 outings (17W 27D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Cagliari against 1.08 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 11W 11D 14L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.11 points per game from 36 outings (9W 13D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.01 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Udinese in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 21D 35L in their last 72 games (0.96 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 27D 28L in their last 72 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Udinese away?
Cagliari's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.22 PPG; Udinese away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
3
Draws
5
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Udinese have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Cagliari 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 67%, Udinese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cagliari) and 36% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 28% of games; Udinese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cagliari's games and 56% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cagliari's recent games and 36% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Udinese tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Udinese in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Cagliari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.43 xG and Udinese 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Udinese attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 45% | Draw 29% | Udinese 27%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Udinese 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.96 PPG, Udinese 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.