AS Roma 2-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Bologna at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 1.20 PPG versus Bologna's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AS Roma, 3 for Bologna and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 60% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 56% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.37 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.963 / defence 0.773 | Bologna attack 1.034 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.317. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 AS Roma games / 48 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Bologna 29%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 40% | Bologna 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Bologna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG AS Roma 1.37 / Bologna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.963 / def 0.773 | Bologna attack 1.034 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bologna xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Bologna kick off?
AS Roma vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
AS Roma 2 - 3 Bologna.
Where is AS Roma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Bologna part of?
AS Roma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning, Bologna a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AS Roma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
Record (6 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 2 | Bologna 3W.
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in?
AS Roma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about AS Roma vs Bologna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.96) and Bologna's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.69
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
Bologna xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.05 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 12D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.73 PPG from 48 outings (21W 20D 7L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.56 PPG, Bologna on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 15W 3D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (8W 10D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.38 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bologna in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Bologna have gone 21W 20D 7L in their last 48 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Bologna away?
AS Roma's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.09 PPG; Bologna away: 1.48 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bologna in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AS Roma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AS Roma
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 52%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AS Roma) and 56% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bologna in 30%; Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AS Roma's recent matches and 56% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AS Roma's recent games and 56% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Bologna tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat AS Roma 2-3 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.37 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.96 / defence 0.77 against Bologna attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Bologna 29%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 56%, Bologna 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.56 PPG, Bologna 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.