Lecce 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Empoli at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Empoli encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Lecce and Empoli meet at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Serie A (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Lecce have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Lecce at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Empoli's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Empoli arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Lecce 1–0 Empoli — a Lecce win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 37% of Lecce's games and 33% of Empoli's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 37% | Empoli 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.95 xG and Empoli 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.756 / defence 1.362 | Empoli attack 0.955 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.314. Lecce's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Lecce's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Empoli's projected output up. Data: built from Lecce's last 49 games and Empoli's last 49.

Result probabilities: Lecce 21% | Draw 24% | Empoli 55%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 4.81 | Draw 4.19 | Empoli 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Empoli (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lecce's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lecce 20% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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