UCD 1-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as UCD face Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
UCD and Bohemians meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
UCD (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
UCD's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at UCD Bowl this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bohemians, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Bohemians winning.
It is worth noting that Bohemians have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 41% versus Bohemians 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 53% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.79 xG and Bohemians 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.614 / defence 1.509 | Bohemians attack 0.838 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 0.966. UCD's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 UCD games / 68 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 24% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 46%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 2.17. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: UCD 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 24% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG UCD 0.79 / Bohemians 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.614 / def 1.509 | Bohemians attack 0.838 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.532 / away 0.966 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bohemians xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Bohemians kick off?
UCD vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 12 October 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Bohemians?
UCD 1 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is UCD vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Bohemians part of?
UCD vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 24% chance of winning, Bohemians a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both UCD and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Bohemians?
Record (7 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 5W.
What form are UCD and Bohemians in?
UCD (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from UCD's attack rating (0.61) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.84x) against UCD's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
24%
4.22
30%
3.29
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
UCD xG
Total xG
2.02
1.22
Bohemians xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 16.3 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are UCD and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for UCD and 1.22 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD come into this having played 68 games, going 9W 13D 46L for 0.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.44 PPG from 68 outings (26W 20D 22L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
UCD's home form reads 6W 8D 20L across 34 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.21 points per game from 34 outings (10W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.35 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Bohemians in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 9W 13D 46L in their last 68 games (0.59 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 22L in their last 68 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.76 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2023, when UCD 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 41%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (UCD) and 35% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 53% of games; Bohemians in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of UCD's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of UCD's recent games and 35% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Bohemians tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out UCD 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat UCD 1-2 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.79 xG and Bohemians 1.22 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.61 / defence 1.51 against Bohemians attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 24% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 46%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 53%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.