Derry City 6-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derry City face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
UCD make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 29 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derry City (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
UCD have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, UCD have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Derry City. A 1.60 PPG lead over UCD (1.80 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Derry City, who have won 7 of the last 7 meetings against UCD — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2023, ended 5–0 with Derry City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Derry City and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
UCD — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 45% versus UCD 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | UCD 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.32 xG and UCD 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.004 / defence 0.779 | UCD attack 0.658 / defence 1.543. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.037. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.543 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Derry City's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Derry City games / 67 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 77% | Draw 17% | UCD 6%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.30 | Draw 5.88 | UCD 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (77%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 30% | UCD 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 77% | Draw 17% | UCD 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 38% | xG Derry City 2.32 / UCD 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.004 / def 0.779 | UCD attack 0.658 / def 1.543 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Derry City (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.53
UCD xG
38%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs UCD kick off?
Derry City vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 September 2023 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs UCD?
Derry City 6 - 0 UCD.
Where is Derry City vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs UCD part of?
Derry City vs UCD is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 77% chance of winning, UCD a 6% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Derry City and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and UCD?
Record (7 meetings): Derry City 7W | Draws 0 | UCD 0W.
What form are Derry City and UCD in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. UCD (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.00) and UCD's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.66x) against Derry City's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 3-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
77%
1.30
17%
6.03
6%
15.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.85
0.53
UCD xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.03
17%
Draw
15.97
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
10%
10.16
Win to Nil
45%
2.20
1%
162.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.6 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Derry City and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Derry City and 0.53 for UCD, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City come into this having played 67 games, going 33W 21D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, UCD sit at 0.60 PPG from 67 outings (9W 13D 45L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Derry City's home form reads 15W 12D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, UCD have taken 0.42 points per game from 33 outings (3W 5D 25L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.66 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and UCD in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 33W 21D 13L in their last 67 games (1.79 PPG), while UCD have gone 9W 13D 45L in their last 67 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or UCD away?
Derry City's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.73 PPG; UCD away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Derry City or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, UCD in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 7-1 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Derry City
0
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Derry City have won 8, UCD have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Derry City 6-0 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and UCD?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 39%, UCD 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Derry City) and 58% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Derry City have failed to score in 30% of games; UCD in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Derry City's recent matches and 42% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Derry City's recent games and 58% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and UCD tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, UCD in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 6-0 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat UCD 6-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.32 xG and UCD 0.53 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.00 / defence 0.78 against UCD attack 0.66 / defence 1.54, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 77% | Draw 17% | UCD 6%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, UCD 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
UCD's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.