Shelbourne 2-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 9 August 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Shelbourne 1W, Bohemians 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Bohemians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bohemians — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 52% versus Bohemians 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 34% | Bohemians 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.07 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.978 / defence 1.053 | Bohemians attack 0.978 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.039. Data: 62 Shelbourne games / 62 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 35%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 60% | Bohemians 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Shelbourne 1.07 / Bohemians 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.978 / def 1.053 | Bohemians attack 0.978 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bohemians xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 2 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 35% chance of winning, Bohemians a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Record (5 meetings): Shelbourne 1W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 2W.
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.98) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.98x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.36
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.14
1.07
Bohemians xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.07 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 26W 23D 13L from 62 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 24L across 62 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.35 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 14W 10D 7L from 31 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.13 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 26W 23D 13L in their last 62 games (1.63 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 23W 15D 24L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Bohemians away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.68 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 55%, Bohemians 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bohemians in 32%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 26% of games; Bohemians in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 45% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and Bohemians share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 27, as Shelbourne and Bohemians drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.07 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 0.83, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 35% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 35%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 34%, Bohemians 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.63 PPG, Bohemians 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.