Derry City 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Bohemians meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 July 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derry City have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry City have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Derry City, 1 for Bohemians and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Bohemians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 50% versus Bohemians 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Bohemians 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.62 xG and Bohemians 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.392 / defence 1.016 | Bohemians attack 0.997 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 0.994. Derry City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Derry City games / 60 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 52% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 24%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 4.17. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 60% | Bohemians 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jul 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 52% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Derry City 1.62 / Bohemians 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.392 / def 1.016 | Bohemians attack 0.997 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.430 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Derry City (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Bohemians xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Bohemians kick off?
Derry City vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 July 2025 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Derry City 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Derry City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Bohemians part of?
Derry City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 52% chance of winning, Bohemians a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derry City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
Record (4 meetings): Derry City 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.00x) against Derry City's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
52%
1.94
25%
4.03
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.62
1.01
Bohemians xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
5%
21.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Derry City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Derry City and 1.01 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 26W 17D 17L from 60 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 23L across 60 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Derry City against 1.38 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 16W 8D 6L from 30 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.15 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Bohemians away?
Derry City's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.87 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Derry City or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bohemians in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
3
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Bohemians have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Bohemians 5-3 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Bohemians?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 63%, Bohemians 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Derry City) and 40% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Bohemians in 33%; Bohemians in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Derry City's recent matches and 43% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Derry City's recent games and 40% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Bohemians tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Derry City and Bohemians drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.62 xG and Bohemians 1.01 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.39 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 52% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 24%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.58 PPG, Bohemians 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.