Cork City 4-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates UCD at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cork City vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 3 as Cork City welcome UCD to Turner's Cross. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, UCD stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
UCD's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.12 xG and UCD 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.834 / defence 1.251 | UCD attack 0.987 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.033. Data: 2 Cork City games / 38 UCD games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cork City 29% | Draw 35% | UCD 36%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | UCD 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates UCD as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on UCD offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 29% | Draw 35% | UCD 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Cork City 1.12 / UCD 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.834 / def 1.251 | UCD attack 0.987 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: UCD (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.28
UCD xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs UCD kick off?
Cork City vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs UCD?
Cork City 4 - 0 UCD.
Where is Cork City vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs UCD part of?
Cork City vs UCD is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 29% chance of winning, UCD a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making UCD the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cork City and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and UCD?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cork City and UCD in?
UCD (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. UCD away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cork City's attack rating (0.83) and UCD's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
UCD Win
29%
3.51
35%
2.83
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.40
1.28
UCD xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cork City and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Cork City and 1.28 for UCD, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
UCD
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2023, when Cork City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting UCD specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cork City
1
Draws
1
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and UCD?
From 4 meetings on record, Cork City have won 2, UCD have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when UCD 0-2 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and UCD?
Cork City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Cork City run riot with a 4-0 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City beat UCD 4-0 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.12 xG and UCD 1.28 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cork City beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. UCD landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against UCD attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 29% | Draw 35% | UCD 36%, with UCD to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cork City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.