Shamrock Rovers 4-4 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Cork City travel to Tallaght Stadium to take on Shamrock Rovers. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 March 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shamrock Rovers stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shamrock Rovers's home record at Tallaght Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.06 xG and Cork City 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.096 / defence 1.030 | Cork City attack 0.739 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 0.990. Data: 39 Shamrock Rovers games / 3 Cork City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 67% | Draw 22% | Cork City 11%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Cork City 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 67% | Draw 22% | Cork City 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.06 / Cork City 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.096 / def 1.030 | Cork City attack 0.739 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.596 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Cork City xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Shamrock Rovers 4 - 4 Cork City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 67% chance of winning, Cork City a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Shamrock Rovers home split: 2.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.56
11%
8.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.81
0.75
Cork City xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
8.76
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
1%
68.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.75 for Cork City, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
1
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, Cork City have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shamrock Rovers and Cork City share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers and Cork City finished level at 4-4 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.06 xG and Cork City 0.75 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cork City outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Cork City attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 39/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 67% | Draw 22% | Cork City 11%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.