Volos NFC 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Levadiakos at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Volos NFC — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Volos NFC have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Levadiakos stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Levadiakos have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Levadiakos's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Volos NFC's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Volos NFC have won 1, Levadiakos 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Feb 2025, ended Volos NFC 1–2 Levadiakos — a Levadiakos win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Volos NFC trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Levadiakos trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 46% versus Levadiakos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 39% | Levadiakos 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.93 xG and Levadiakos 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.787 / defence 1.218 | Levadiakos attack 0.939 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Volos NFC's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Volos NFC's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levadiakos's projected output up. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 52 games and Levadiakos's last 26.

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 44%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.62 | Draw 3.47 | Levadiakos 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 40% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 60% (last 10 away games).

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