Panetolikos 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 58%, yet the head-to-head data favours Lamia — this Panetolikos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lamia travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Panetolikos have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Panetolikos have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamia — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lamia's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 0.70 (Lamia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Panetolikos's 30% BTTS rate and Lamia's 30% (from Panetolikos's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
Lamia have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Panetolikos.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Panetolikos 1–0 Lamia — a Panetolikos win.
Lamia have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 39% versus Lamia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 39% | Lamia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.782 / defence 0.817 | Lamia attack 0.643 / defence 1.447. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Panetolikos's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.44. Lamia's defence rating of 1.447 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Lamia's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.57. Data: built from Panetolikos's last 52 games and Lamia's last 52.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 58% | Draw 27% | Lamia 15%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 1.72 | Draw 3.71 | Lamia 6.76. The model has a clear lean to Panetolikos (58%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.57 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Panetolikos's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panetolikos 30% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 58% | Draw 27% | Lamia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Panetolikos 1.44 / Lamia 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.782 / def 0.817 | Lamia attack 0.643 / def 1.447 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Lamia xG
33%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panetolikos vs Lamia FAQs
What time does Panetolikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Lamia kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Panetolikos 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Lamia part of?
Panetolikos vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 58% chance of winning, Lamia a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Panetolikos and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Panetolikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.78x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panetolikos's last 52 games and Lamia's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 2-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.71
15%
6.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.01
0.57
Lamia xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.76
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
4%
28.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panetolikos vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.57 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 16D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.77 PPG from 61 outings (11W 14D 36L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.15 PPG, Lamia on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 11W 5D 14L across their last 30 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.90 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
Panetolikos (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panetolikos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Panetolikos vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 18W 16D 27L in their last 61 games (1.15 PPG), while Lamia have gone 11W 14D 36L in their last 61 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Lamia away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.27 PPG; Lamia away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lamia in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from March 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Panetolikos vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panetolikos have won 4, Lamia have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 33%, Lamia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Panetolikos) and 57% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 37% of games; Lamia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panetolikos vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panetolikos and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 53% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panetolikos and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Panetolikos's recent games and 57% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 67% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.57 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 0.82 against Lamia attack 0.64 / defence 1.45, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 58% | Draw 27% | Lamia 15%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 39%, Lamia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.15 PPG, Lamia 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.