Volos NFC 2-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host AEK Athens FC at Panthessaliko Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AEK Athens FC — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
AEK Athens FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 9 encounters against Volos NFC's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AEK Athens FC have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus AEK Athens FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | AEK Athens FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.65 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.733 / defence 1.195 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.347 / defence 0.636. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.094. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.636 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Volos NFC games / 48 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 13% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | AEK Athens FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 50% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 13% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 40% | xG Volos NFC 0.65 / AEK Athens FC 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.733 / def 1.195 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.347 / def 0.636 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
AEK Athens FC xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Volos NFC 2 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 13% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 64% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
Record (9 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 8W.
What form are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.73) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.0%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
13%
7.81
23%
4.31
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.76
AEK Athens FC xG
7.81
13%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
2%
45.42
34%
2.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 15.9 | 14.0 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.76 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 8D 28L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 32W 9D 13L from 54 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (8W 6D 12L).
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 13W 5D 8L from 26 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.65 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 18W 8D 28L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 32W 9D 13L in their last 54 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.15 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
1
Draws
8
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, AEK Athens FC have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
AEK Athens FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 42%, AEK Athens FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Volos NFC) and 38% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 42%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 38% of games; AEK Athens FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 35% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Volos NFC's recent games and 38% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and AEK Athens FC finished level at 2-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.65 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.76 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.64, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 13% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 64%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, AEK Athens FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.