Panetolikos 0-4 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 45%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Panetolikou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Panetolikou, Panetolikos have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Aris Thessalonikis, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aris Thessalonikis have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 48% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | Aris Thessalonikis 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.68 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 1.020 / defence 1.123 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.960 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.187. Data: 43 Panetolikos games / 43 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 45% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 27%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.70. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 45% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Panetolikos 1.68 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 1.020 / def 1.123 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.960 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Aris Thessalonikis xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panetolikos 0 - 4 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 45% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (5 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 4W.
What form are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.96x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.63
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.96
1.28
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
5%
19.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.28 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 14D 26L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.48 PPG from 50 outings (22W 8D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Panetolikos's home form reads 5W 8D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.52 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 10W 14D 26L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 8D 20L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.96 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
0
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 33%, Aris Thessalonikis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Panetolikos) and 46% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 50% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Panetolikos's recent games and 46% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 0-4 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.68 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.28 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 45% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 27%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 46%, Aris Thessalonikis 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.