Kifisia 2-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kifisia host Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kifisia — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 games at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos this term (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Kifisia are significantly better at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Kifisia's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kifisia, 1 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 59% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 65% | Olympiakos Piraeus 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 0.87 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.864 / defence 1.511 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.938 / defence 0.648. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.227. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.648 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 17 Kifisia games / 43 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 17% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 56%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kifisia 67% | Olympiakos Piraeus 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 17% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Kifisia 0.87 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.864 / def 1.511 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.938 / def 0.648 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Kifisia 2 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos.
What competition is Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 17% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Kifisia 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Kifisia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kifisia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
17%
5.94
27%
3.71
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.61
1.74
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
5.94
17%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
3%
33.83
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.74 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Kifisia have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 2W 6D 9L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 10W 4D 3L from 17 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kifisia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kifisia have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kifisia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.24 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.12 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 10W 4D 3L in their last 17 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 0.88 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Kifisia or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kifisia have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kifisia's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kifisia
1
Draws
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 4 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kifisia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 62%, Olympiakos Piraeus 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kifisia) and 25% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 62%; Kifisia have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Kifisia's recent matches and 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kifisia's recent games and 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Kifisia 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Kifisia 2-3 at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 0.87 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.74 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kifisia beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.86 / defence 1.51 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.94 / defence 0.65, drawn from 17/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 17% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 65%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.