Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host AEK Athens FC at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AEK Athens FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AEK Athens FC have the better historical record — 8 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Lamia.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AEK Athens FC have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 58% versus AEK Athens FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 62% | AEK Athens FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.84 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.686 / defence 0.964 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.855 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.293. Lamia's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Lamia games / 40 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 28% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | AEK Athens FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 28% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Lamia 0.84 / AEK Athens FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.686 / def 0.964 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.855 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AEK Athens FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Lamia 0 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 28% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Lamia and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
Record (9 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | AEK Athens FC 8W.
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.69) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
28%
3.62
33%
3.06
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Lamia xG
Total xG
1.91
1.07
AEK Athens FC xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Lamia and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Lamia and 1.07 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 14D 26L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.10 PPG from 50 outings (31W 12D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 6W 6D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.68 points per game from 25 outings (12W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AEK Athens FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.06 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 10W 14D 26L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 31W 12D 7L in their last 50 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.96 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Lamia or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 56%, AEK Athens FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lamia and 64% for AEK Athens FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play AEK Athens FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lamia's games and 56% of AEK Athens FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lamia's matches and 64% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Lamia and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Lamia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 0-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.84 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.07 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.69 / defence 0.96 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 28% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 40%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 62%, AEK Athens FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.