Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panetolikos have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Aris Thessalonikis's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Aris Thessalonikis, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Panetolikos — a 0D 3W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Aris Thessalonikis and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 51% versus Panetolikos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Panetolikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 2.09 xG and Panetolikos 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.082 / defence 1.036 | Panetolikos attack 0.801 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.032. Data: 35 Aris Thessalonikis games / 35 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 65% | Draw 21% | Panetolikos 13%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Panetolikos 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Panetolikos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 65% | Draw 21% | Panetolikos 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 2.09 / Panetolikos 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.082 / def 1.036 | Panetolikos attack 0.801 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Panetolikos xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 65% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Record (10 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 7W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 3W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.80x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.66
13%
7.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.95
0.86
Panetolikos xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
7.42
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
60.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.86 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 14D 11L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 1.00 PPG from 41 outings (11W 8D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 8W 10D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.98 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 16W 14D 11L in their last 41 games (1.51 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 11W 8D 22L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panetolikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.70 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Panetolikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 55%, Panetolikos 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 35% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 35% of games; Panetolikos in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 35% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 35% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.