AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos meet at Allwyn Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC at Allwyn Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Allwyn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, AEK Athens FC have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Levadiakos managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 4–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The historical record gives AEK Athens FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 38% versus Levadiakos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 41% | Levadiakos 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.48 xG and Levadiakos 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.324 / defence 0.822 | Levadiakos attack 0.912 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing AEK Athens FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 AEK Athens FC games / 28 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | Levadiakos 8%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | Levadiakos 12.50. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (74%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 40% | Levadiakos 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | Levadiakos 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 49% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.48 / Levadiakos 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.324 / def 0.822 | Levadiakos attack 0.912 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Levadiakos xG
49%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 74% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 8% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
Record (6 meetings): AEK Athens FC 5W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.32x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.91x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
74%
1.35
18%
5.61
8%
12.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.23
0.75
Levadiakos xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
12.48
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
8%
11.98
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
1%
149.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.75 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.24 PPG on a 22W 10D 2L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos's form line: 15W 7D 12L from 34 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.59 PPG from 17 outings (14W 2D 1L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 5W 4D 8L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.85 scored and 1.56 conceded. Levadiakos's attacking output running into AEK Athens FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 22W 10D 2L in their last 34 games (2.24 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Levadiakos away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.59 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.12 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AEK Athens FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 29%, Levadiakos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AEK Athens FC) and 65% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Levadiakos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 47% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 65% of Levadiakos's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.