Werder Bremen 1-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
wohninvest WESERSTADION plays host to Werder Bremen versus 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.40 for 1. FC Heidenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–4 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 63% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 63% | 1. FC Heidenheim 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.86 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.037 / defence 1.053 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.832 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.239. Data: 54 Werder Bremen games / 20 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 54% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Heidenheim 5.00. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 54% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Werder Bremen 1.86 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.037 / def 1.053 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.832 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.08
1. FC Heidenheim xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Werder Bremen 1 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 54% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (3 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2W.
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.04x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.83x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.90
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.08
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
31.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.08 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 17W 11D 26L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 13L across 54 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 10W 4D 13L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 8W 9D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.76 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 17W 11D 26L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 25W 16D 13L in their last 54 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.26 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
3
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 8 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Werder Bremen 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 63%, 1. FC Heidenheim 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Werder Bremen) and 48% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Werder Bremen's games and 56% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Werder Bremen's matches and 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat Werder Bremen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.86 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 54% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Heidenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.