Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees SC Freiburg travel to BVB Stadion Dortmund to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 February 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BVB Stadion Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.60 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 4–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 59% versus SC Freiburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 67% | SC Freiburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.09 xG and SC Freiburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.124 / defence 1.177 | SC Freiburg attack 0.916 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.253. Data: 54 Borussia Dortmund games / 54 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 53% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | SC Freiburg 4.35. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: BVB Stadion Dortmund • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 53% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.09 / SC Freiburg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.124 / def 1.177 | SC Freiburg attack 0.916 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SC Freiburg xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 February 2024 at BVB Stadion Dortmund.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund 3 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at BVB Stadion Dortmund.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 53% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 4W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.12x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.23
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.44
1.35
SC Freiburg xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
3%
34.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.35 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 32W 12D 10L from 54 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 17L across 54 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 2.00 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 20W 4D 3L from 27 games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 10W 5D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 32W 12D 10L in their last 54 games (2.00 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 25W 12D 17L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.37 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 59%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Borussia Dortmund and 63% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 37%; SC Freiburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 63% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 3-0 at BVB Stadion Dortmund, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.09 xG and SC Freiburg 1.35 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.12 / defence 1.18 against SC Freiburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 53% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 23%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 67%, SC Freiburg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 2.00 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.