Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Werder Bremen welcome Borussia Dortmund to wohninvest WESERSTADION. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Werder Bremen) versus 1.90 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Borussia Dortmund, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Werder Bremen.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 64% and Borussia Dortmund 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 62% | Borussia Dortmund 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.05 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.939 / defence 1.053 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.195 / defence 0.667. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.333. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.667 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Werder Bremen games / 58 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 22% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 51%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Dortmund 1.96. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 22% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Werder Bremen 1.05 / Borussia Dortmund 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.939 / def 1.053 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.195 / def 0.667 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Werder Bremen 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 22% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (5 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
22%
4.49
27%
3.67
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.73
1.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.49
22%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
4%
24.04
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.68 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 18W 12D 28L from 58 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 11L across 58 games — 1.98 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 10W 5D 14L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 13W 9D 7L across 29 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.26 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 12D 28L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 34W 13D 11L in their last 58 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.21 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 66%, Borussia Dortmund 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Werder Bremen and 55% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Werder Bremen's games and 59% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Werder Bremen's matches and 55% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Werder Bremen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.05 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.20 / defence 0.67, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 22% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 51%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, Borussia Dortmund 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.