VfL Bochum 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Bochum at 54%, yet the head-to-head data favours SC Freiburg — this VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Vonovia Ruhrstadion to face VfL Bochum in Bundesliga (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
VfL Bochum (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, VfL Bochum have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for VfL Bochum, 0.90 for SC Freiburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to SC Freiburg, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended VfL Bochum 1–2 SC Freiburg — a SC Freiburg win.
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 59% versus SC Freiburg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 60% | SC Freiburg 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: VfL Bochum surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while SC Freiburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.987 / defence 1.078 | SC Freiburg attack 0.807 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.336. Data: built from VfL Bochum's last 58 games and SC Freiburg's last 58.
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 54% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 21%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 1.85 | Draw 4.05 | SC Freiburg 4.69. VfL Bochum hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Bochum's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Bochum 80% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 54% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG VfL Bochum 1.93 / SC Freiburg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.987 / def 1.078 | SC Freiburg attack 0.807 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg FAQs
What time does VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
VfL Bochum 1 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 54% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Bochum's attack rating (0.99) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.81x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from VfL Bochum's last 58 games and SC Freiburg's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.05
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.09
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
3%
32.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.16 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 15W 15D 28L from 58 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 19L across 58 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Bochum heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 12W 8D 9L from their last 29 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — VfL Bochum are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 10W 5D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
VfL Bochum (Home) vs SC Freiburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Bochum
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg Form FAQs
What form are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 15W 15D 28L in their last 58 games (1.03 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 25W 14D 19L in their last 58 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or SC Freiburg away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.52 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.21 PPG.
Have VfL Bochum or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Bochum have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the most recent 7 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won SC Freiburg 3-0 VfL Bochum on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
VfL Bochum
0
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Bochum have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: VfL Bochum 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 69%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for VfL Bochum and 66% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 34%; SC Freiburg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Bochum vs SC Freiburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of VfL Bochum's games and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of VfL Bochum's matches and 66% of SC Freiburg's.
Do VfL Bochum and SC Freiburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 66% of SC Freiburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfL Bochum 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfL Bochum 1-2 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. VfL Bochum fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against SC Freiburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 54% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 21%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 60%, SC Freiburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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