Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Union Berlin welcome SC Paderborn 07 to . Kick-off is set for Tuesday 12 January 2027 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at : 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 1.30 PPG versus SC Paderborn 07's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 60% versus SC Paderborn 07 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 60% | SC Paderborn 07 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.30 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.764 / defence 0.996 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.628 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Union Berlin games / 8 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | SC Paderborn 07 4.17. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 70% | SC Paderborn 07 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Jan 2027, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Union Berlin 1.30 / SC Paderborn 07 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.764 / def 0.996 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.628 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.86
SC Paderborn 07 xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 19:30 on Tuesday 12 January 2027.
What competition is Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 46% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Union Berlin and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.76) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.38
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.17
0.86
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.86 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 13D 18L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 20W 11D 11L from 42 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (5W 10D 6L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 8W 8D 5L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.52 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.19 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 67%, SC Paderborn 07 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Union Berlin) and 48% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 48%; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 43% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Union Berlin's recent games and 48% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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