SC Freiburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.40 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 56% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 64% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.912 / defence 0.966 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.811 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.401. Data: 45 SC Freiburg games / 45 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 37% | Draw 34% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 37% | Draw 34% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG SC Freiburg 1.26 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.912 / def 0.966 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.811 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SC Freiburg 3 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 37% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (6 meetings): SC Freiburg 2W | Draws 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
37%
2.69
34%
2.96
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.36
1.10
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.10 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 16W 11D 18L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 12W 15D 18L from 45 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.31 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 9D 10L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.62 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 16W 11D 18L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.45 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.82 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when SC Freiburg won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
5
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 73%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SC Freiburg and 64% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of SC Freiburg's games and 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SC Freiburg's matches and 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.81 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 37% | Draw 34% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.31 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.