FC St. Pauli 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as FC St. Pauli welcome Eintracht Frankfurt to Millerntor-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC St. Pauli 1.20 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC St. Pauli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC St. Pauli, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC St. Pauli trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 41% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 41% | Eintracht Frankfurt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.75 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.810 / defence 0.959 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.230 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.393. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 FC St. Pauli games / 58 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 41% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 36%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 41% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.75 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.810 / def 0.959 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.230 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 41% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (3 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
41%
2.45
23%
4.34
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.39
1.64
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.67
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.64 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 14W 13D 31L from 58 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 16L across 58 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC St. Pauli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 7W 8D 13L from 28 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 10D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.00 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 67%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 13D 31L in their last 58 games (0.95 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 16D 16L in their last 58 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.04 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when FC St. Pauli 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 39%, Eintracht Frankfurt 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (FC St. Pauli) and 68% (Eintracht Frankfurt).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of FC St. Pauli's games and 79% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC St. Pauli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 0-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.75 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.64 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.23 / defence 1.26, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 41% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 36%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 41%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.