FC St. Pauli 0-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host Bayern München at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayern München stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayern München — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 95% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 56% versus Bayern München 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 54% | Bayern München 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 0.71 xG and Bayern München 2.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.476 / defence 0.967 | Bayern München attack 1.755 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.507. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.476 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.755 — the away xG of 2.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 FC St. Pauli games / 43 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 6% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 75%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 16.67 | Draw 5.26 | Bayern München 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (75%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 30% | Bayern München 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 6% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 49% | xG FC St. Pauli 0.71 / Bayern München 2.56 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.476 / def 0.967 | Bayern München attack 1.755 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (75%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
2.56
Bayern München xG
49%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 6% chance of winning, Bayern München a 75% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Bayern München in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Bayern München (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 0.48x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 2.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (10.6%), 1-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
6%
16.13
19%
5.39
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.27
2.56
Bayern München xG
16.13
6%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
8%
12.88
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
0%
–
37%
2.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 2.56 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 22W 11D 10L from 43 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München, meanwhile, have gone 30W 5D 8L across 43 games — 2.21 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayern München by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC St. Pauli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 11W 7D 3L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayern München's away record stands at 12W 3D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.93 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Bayern München in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Bayern München in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 30W 5D 8L in their last 43 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Bayern München away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.90 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.86 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bayern München in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bayern München go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Apr 2026, when Bayern München won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
4
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Bayern München?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 0, Bayern München have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FC St. Pauli 0-5 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 48%, Bayern München 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for FC St. Pauli and 95% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 81% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of FC St. Pauli's games and 76% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 95% of Bayern München's.
Do FC St. Pauli and Bayern München tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out FC St. Pauli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat FC St. Pauli 0-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.71 xG and Bayern München 2.56 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bayern München landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.48 / defence 0.97 against Bayern München attack 1.75 / defence 0.93, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 6% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 75%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 54%, Bayern München 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayern München's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.79. That form edge translated into the three points. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.