Werder Bremen 2-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host Holstein Kiel at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Weserstadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Weserstadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Werder Bremen have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Holstein Kiel in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Werder Bremen, 2 for Holstein Kiel and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Werder Bremen trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Holstein Kiel trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 60% versus Holstein Kiel 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 63% | Holstein Kiel 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.52 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.784 / defence 1.063 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.915 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.507. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Werder Bremen games / 9 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 31% | Holstein Kiel 33%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Holstein Kiel 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | Holstein Kiel 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 31% | Holstein Kiel 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Werder Bremen 1.52 / Holstein Kiel 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.784 / def 1.063 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.915 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Holstein Kiel xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel?
Werder Bremen 2 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 2W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.25
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.98
1.47
Holstein Kiel xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.47 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 14W 12D 17L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel's form line: 22W 7D 14L from 43 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 5D 4L from 21 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.77 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 22W 7D 14L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.29 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Werder Bremen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Werder Bremen won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
2
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel?
From 4 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Holstein Kiel 0-3 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 57%, Holstein Kiel 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Werder Bremen and 57% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 48%; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Holstein Kiel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 52% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Werder Bremen's matches and 57% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Werder Bremen and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Werder Bremen edge out Holstein Kiel 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.52 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.47 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 31% | Holstein Kiel 33%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, Holstein Kiel 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.