Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome SC Freiburg to BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 2 for SC Freiburg and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% and SC Freiburg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% | SC Freiburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and SC Freiburg 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.959 / defence 0.950 | SC Freiburg attack 0.787 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.440. Data: 62 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 62 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 25%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | SC Freiburg 4.00. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
SC Freiburg lead the H2H ledger, but Borussia Mönchengladbach carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | SC Freiburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 / SC Freiburg 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.959 / def 0.950 | SC Freiburg attack 0.787 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.08
SC Freiburg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 50% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
Record (6 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 4 | SC Freiburg 2W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
50%
2.01
25%
3.95
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.70
1.08
SC Freiburg xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.08 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 20W 18D 24L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
SC Freiburg's form line: 23W 15D 24L from 62 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.26 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 10W 6D 15L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.34 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 18D 24L in their last 62 games (1.26 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 23W 15D 24L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.42 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2026, when SC Freiburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%, SC Freiburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 61% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 39%; SC Freiburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 42% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 61% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and SC Freiburg 1.08 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against SC Freiburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 25%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%, SC Freiburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.