Borussia Dortmund 2-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Borussia Dortmund welcome FC St. Pauli to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Borussia Dortmund) versus 1.30 (FC St. Pauli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Dortmund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC St. Pauli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 62% and FC St. Pauli 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 62% | FC St. Pauli 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.32 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.439 / defence 0.910 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.869 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.699. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.439 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Borussia Dortmund games / 6 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 58% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 20%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | FC St. Pauli 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 58% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.32 / FC St. Pauli 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.439 / def 0.910 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.869 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.699 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC St. Pauli xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 18 October 2024 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 58% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.44x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
58%
1.71
21%
4.70
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.66
1.34
FC St. Pauli xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
10%
10.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
2%
49.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.34 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 21W 10D 9L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 21W 10D 9L from 40 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.82 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 10W 4D 6L from 20 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.65 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 21W 10D 9L in their last 40 games (1.82 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 21W 10D 9L in their last 40 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.10 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
0
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 60%, FC St. Pauli 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Borussia Dortmund and 60% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 65% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.32 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.34 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.44 / defence 0.91 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 58% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 20%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 62%, FC St. Pauli 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.82 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.