SV Wehen 1-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Wehen at 39%, yet in-form Hannover 96 provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Wehen host Hannover 96 at BRITA-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Wehen stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Wehen have posted 4W 3D 3L at BRITA-Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SV Wehen are significantly better at BRITA-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hannover 96 — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SV Wehen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hannover 96 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SV Wehen, 1 for Hannover 96 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Hannover 96 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SV Wehen in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Wehen 58% and Hannover 96 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 46% | Hannover 96 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.51 xG and Hannover 96 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.839 / defence 1.119 | Hannover 96 attack 0.968 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.369. Data: 24 SV Wehen games / 58 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 39% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 37%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Hannover 96 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Wehen at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hannover 96 (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Wehen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Wehen 70% | Hannover 96 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 39% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG SV Wehen 1.51 / Hannover 96 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.839 / def 1.119 | Hannover 96 attack 0.968 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Hannover 96 xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
SV Wehen 1 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 part of?
SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 39% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SV Wehen and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Hannover 96?
Record (1 meetings): SV Wehen 0W | Draws 0 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are SV Wehen and Hannover 96 in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Wehen's attack rating (0.84) and Hannover 96's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
39%
2.60
24%
4.11
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
3.00
1.48
Hannover 96 xG
2.60
39%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.48 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 10W 6D 10L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96's form line: 10W 9D 7L from 26 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Wehen on 1.38 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hannover 96's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Wehen are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.88 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 in 65%.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 10W 9D 7L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Hannover 96 away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.58 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
1
Draws
1
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Hannover 96?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 0, Hannover 96 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when SV Wehen 1-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Wehen at 67%, Hannover 96 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (SV Wehen) and 67% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SV Wehen's games and 67% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of SV Wehen's recent games and 67% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Wehen and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 25, as SV Wehen and Hannover 96 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.51 xG and Hannover 96 1.48 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Hannover 96 attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 39% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 37%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 46%, Hannover 96 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.38 PPG, Hannover 96 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.