SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-4 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Elversberg make the trip to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to face SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SV Elversberg have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SV Elversberg have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in SpVgg Greuther Fürth's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SV Elversberg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 SV Elversberg — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% versus SV Elversberg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | SV Elversberg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.86 xG and SV Elversberg 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.099 / defence 0.858 | SV Elversberg attack 0.801 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.358. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 58 games and SV Elversberg's last 24.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 19%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.69 | Draw 4.47 | SV Elversberg 5.40. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.86 / SV Elversberg 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.099 / def 0.858 | SV Elversberg attack 0.801 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.93
SV Elversberg xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 4 SV Elversberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 59% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.10x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.80x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 58 games and SV Elversberg's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.47
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.79
0.93
SV Elversberg xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
3%
34.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.93 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 5D 8L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.33 for SV Elversberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 8W 2D 2L across their last 12 home games, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 12 away games (4W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.46 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 67%.
Defensively: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 5D 8L in their last 24 games (1.58 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Elversberg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 2.17 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.25 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Elversberg won SV Elversberg 6-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%, SV Elversberg 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 58% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 75% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 58% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 83% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-4 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.86 xG and SV Elversberg 0.93 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against SV Elversberg attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 19%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a SV Elversberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%, SV Elversberg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.58 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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