SV Wehen 1-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Wehen at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Schalke 04 travel to BRITA-Arena to take on SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 6 games, SV Wehen have gone 4W 1D 1L — a 2.17 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.67 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
SV Wehen at home: 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from their last 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FC Schalke 04 — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
SV Wehen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.17 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.17 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
SV Wehen trading profile (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 trading profile (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 50% versus FC Schalke 04 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 50% | FC Schalke 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.58 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.783 / defence 0.906 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.913 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.335. SV Wehen's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.58. FC Schalke 04's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Wehen's projected output up. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 4 games and FC Schalke 04's last 4.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 48% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 27%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.06 | Draw 4.00 | FC Schalke 04 3.77. SV Wehen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Wehen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Wehen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Wehen's last 3 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 33% (last 3 home games) | FC Schalke 04 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 5 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 48% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG SV Wehen 1.58 / FC Schalke 04 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.783 / def 0.906 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.913 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC Schalke 04 xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 FAQs
What time does SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04?
SV Wehen 1 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 5) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 48% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.78x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Wehen's last 4 games and FC Schalke 04's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.00
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.69
1.10
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.10 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Wehen come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 1D 1L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
SV Wehen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SV Wehen's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across their last 3 home games, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 0.00 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Schalke 04's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Wehen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
Defensively: SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
SV Wehen (Home) vs FC Schalke 04 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Wehen
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 Form FAQs
What form are SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SV Wehen's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 2.33 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.00 PPG.
Have SV Wehen or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
1
Draws
1
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Wehen have won 0, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: FC Schalke 04 1-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 33%, FC Schalke 04 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SV Wehen) and 67% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Wehen vs FC Schalke 04 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 67% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SV Wehen's recent games and 67% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 100% of FC Schalke 04's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 5, as SV Wehen and FC Schalke 04 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.58 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.10 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.78 / defence 0.91 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 48% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 27%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 50%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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